Xuan Changneng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China: China's main economic indicators have stabilized and rebounded significantly.
On the 8th, at the "Strengthening International Macro Policy Dialogue and Improving Global Economic and Financial Resilience" forum held during the 2023 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting, Xuan Changneng, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, said that with the vigorous efforts of macro-control and policies to bear fruit, China's main economic indicators have clearly stabilized and rebounded. Positive factors are accumulating in economic operation, bright spots are increasing, and expectations are improving. Economic globalization is the general trend and what the people want. Open cooperation and mutual benefit are wise choices.
"It is expected that China's economy will achieve a growth of about 5% this year. The growth rate is still among the best among major economies and will continue to be an important engine and stabilizing force for world economic growth." Xuanchangneng said.
Xuan Changneng believes that the international situation is complex and severe. The world currently faces many uncertainties and challenges. Geographical conflicts have intensified, trade protectionism has generally risen, and high inflation, high interest rates, and high debt are prominent features. Looking to the future, from a growth perspective, the sluggish world economic recovery, geopolitical games, the cumulative effect of tightening global liquidity, potential financial risks, extreme weather events, etc. are all important factors affecting future world economic growth.
Xuan Changneng pointed out that the World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund in October showed that global economic growth is expected to slow down from 3.5% last year to 3% this year and 2.9% next year. The tightening monetary policies of major developed economies have suppressed inflation and the overall inflation has fallen, which of course has had a negative impact on their investment and consumption. The growth of emerging economies has diverged and global liquidity has tightened, adding to the uncertainty of economic growth in high-debt economies. Judging from the evolution trend of financial risks, as inflationary pressures in various countries ease and the risk of economic recession increases, major central banks will end interest rate hikes in due course. The marginal impact of tightening monetary policies on currency exchange rates, stock markets and cross-border capital flows may weaken. However, its cumulative effects will also gradually appear. Risks in some economies and some areas still deserve high attention.
Xuan Changneng pointed out that half a month ago, the China-U.S. Financial Working Group held its first meeting. The two sides conducted professional, pragmatic, candid and constructive communication on the two countries' monetary policies, financial stability, financial supervision and other issues, as well as other issues of major concern to both sides. Both parties agreed to continue communication.
Xuan Changneng said that the world has entered a new period of major change, and the global governance system is in a critical period of adjustment and reform. The People's Bank of China will continue to actively participate in international economic and financial governance, maintain and strengthen macroeconomic and financial policy dialogue and coordination with other countries, especially major economies, and support the construction of an open world economy.
